Sunday, April 9, 2017

What happens to stocks after an economic release?

The Employment Report

Based on daily S&P $SPY closing prices from 03/15/60 to 03/13/17 the issue traded after the Employment Report reported a less than 5% unemployment rate 180 times.  The issue rallied on the following day 93 times.  The largest following rally occurred on 09/08/98 when the issue closed higher by 5 percent.  The largest following correction occurred on 03/12/01 when the issue closed lower by -4 percent.

Based on daily $GLD closing prices from 07/08/05 to 03/13/17 the issue traded after the Employment Report reported a less than 5% unemployment rate 51 times.  The issue rallied on the following day 31 times.  The largest following rally occurred on 05/05/08 when the issue closed higher by 2 percent.  The largest following correction occurred on 05/09/16 when the issue closed lower by -2 percent.

Based on daily $TLT closing prices from 07/08/05 to 03/13/17 the issue traded after the Employment Report reported a less than 5% unemployment rate 51 times.  The issue rallied on the following day 27 times.  The largest following rally occurred on 02/08/16 when the issue closed higher by 2 percent.  The largest following correction occurred on 10/05/15 when the issue closed lower by -1 percent.

Based on daily $USO closing prices from 05/05/06 to 03/13/17 the issue traded after the Employment Report reported a less than 5% unemployment rate 41 times.  The issue rallied on the following day 15 times.  The largest following rally occurred on 03/07/16 when the issue closed higher by 5 percent.  The largest following correction occurred on 12/07/15 when the issue closed lower by -6 percent.

Read More: What happens the day after the Employment Report...

GDP

Based on daily S&P $SPY closing prices between 2/20/50 and 3/01/17 the index traded after 595 positive GDP reports.  The following day the index rose by some amount 307 times.  The largest rally occurred on 11/26/08 when the index rose by 4 percent.  The largest correction occurred on 9/29/08 when the index closed lower by 9 percent.

A Rate Hike

Based on daily $SPX $SPY closing prices from 9/27/82 to 3/15/17 the index rose 44 times the day after a rate hike and fell 31 times.  The largest rally occured on 5/26/87 when the index closed higher by 2.5%.  The largest reversal occured on 8/10/88 when the index closed lower by 1.7%.