Tuesday, March 27, 2018

What happens to stocks after a crash?

Based on daily AMD closing prices from 01/16/92 to 02/06/18 the issue fell more than five percent 424 times.  The issue continued to fall on the following day 202 times.  The largest following rally occurred on 10/17/02 when the issue closed higher by 24 percent.  The largest following correction occurred on 01/14/99 when the issue closed lower by -19 percent.

Based on daily AMZN closing prices from 05/21/97 to 10/31/16 the issue fell more than five percent 285 times.  The issue continued to fall on the following day 141 times.  The largest following rally occurred on 04/09/01 when the issue closed higher by 34 percent.  The largest following correction occurred on 07/24/01 when the issue closed lower by -25 percent.

Based on daily AZO closing prices from 06/08/92 to 02/28/18 the issue fell more than five percent 77 times.  The issue continued to fall on the following day 30 times.  The largest following rally occurred on 09/18/01 when the issue closed higher by 10 percent.  The largest following correction occurred on 01/06/97 when the issue closed lower by -16 percent.

Based on daily DAL closing prices from 07/26/07 to 01/25/18 the issue fell more than five percent 141 times.  The issue continued to fall on the following day 66 times.  The largest following rally occurred on 04/21/09 when the issue closed higher by 19 percent.  The largest following correction occurred on 10/07/08 when the issue closed lower by -21 percent.

Based on daily NFLX closing prices from 06/07/02 to 03/28/18 the issue fell more than five percent 170 times.  The issue continued to fall on the following day 95 times.  The largest following rally occurred on 10/10/02 when the issue closed higher by 36 percent.  The largest following correction occurred on 07/26/02 when the issue closed lower by -16 percent.

Based on daily TSLA closing prices from 07/01/10 to 03/29/18 the issue fell more than five percent 75 times.  The issue continued to fall on the following day 40 times.  The largest following rally occurred on 01/17/12 when the issue closed higher by 17 percent.  The largest following correction occurred on 07/06/10 when the issue closed lower by -16 percent.

What happens after 30 days...

Based on daily AMD closing prices from 01/16/92 to 03/19/18 the issue fell more than five percent 424 times.  The issue continued to fall over the following 30 days 238 times.  The largest following rally occurred on 11/26/02 when the issue closed higher by 128 percent.  The largest following correction occurred on 10/04/02 when the issue closed lower by -64 percent.

Based on daily AMZN closing prices from 05/21/97 to 12/09/16 the issue fell more than five percent 285 times.  The issue continued to fall over the following 30 days 131 times.  The largest following rally occurred on 01/12/99 when the issue closed higher by 155 percent.  The largest following correction occurred on 12/21/00 when the issue closed lower by -51 percent.

Based on daily AZO closing prices from 06/08/92 to 10/30/17 the issue fell more than five percent 76 times.  The issue continued to fall over the following 30 days 35 times.  The largest following rally occurred on 01/05/09 when the issue closed higher by 55 percent.  The largest following correction occurred on 09/04/98 when the issue closed lower by -30 percent.

Based on daily DAL closing prices from 07/26/07 to 03/07/18 the issue fell more than five percent 141 times.  The issue continued to fall over the following 30 days 60 times.  The largest following rally occurred on 08/22/08 when the issue closed higher by 86 percent.  The largest following correction occurred on 03/04/09 when the issue closed lower by -56 percent.

Based on daily NFLX closing prices from 06/07/02 to 03/22/18 the issue fell more than five percent 169 times.  The issue continued to fall over the following 30 days 57 times.  The largest following rally occurred on 11/19/02 when the issue closed higher by 78 percent.  The largest following correction occurred on 05/23/07 when the issue closed lower by -54 percent.

Based on daily TSLA closing prices from 07/01/10 to 03/22/18 the issue fell more than five percent 73 times.  The issue continued to fall over the following 30 days 27 times.  The largest following rally occurred on 05/14/13 when the issue closed higher by 103 percent.  The largest following correction occurred on 02/16/16 when the issue closed lower by -31 percent.

Monday, March 26, 2018

What happens to stocks after a rally?

Based on daily AAPL closing prices from 12/26/91 to 02/13/18 the issue rose more than four percent 415 times.  The issue continued to rally on the following day 175 times.  The largest following rally occurred on 10/13/08 when the issue closed higher by 14 percent.  The largest following correction occurred on 09/29/00 when the issue closed lower by -52 percent.

Based on daily AMZN closing prices from 05/23/97 to 10/30/17 the issue rose more than four percent 461 times.  The issue continued to rally on the following day 228 times.  The largest following rally occurred on 01/22/02 when the issue closed higher by 24 percent.  The largest following correction occurred on 10/24/01 when the issue closed lower by -20 percent.

Based on daily BABA closing prices from 11/04/14 to 02/15/18 the issue rose more than four percent 20 times.  The issue continued to rally on the following day 14 times.  The largest following rally occurred on 08/12/16 when the issue closed higher by 7 percent.  The largest following correction occurred on 11/11/14 when the issue closed lower by -4 percent.

Based on daily EA closing prices from 12/23/91 to 02/01/18 the issue rose more than four percent 532 times.  The issue continued to rally on the following day 228 times.  The largest following rally occurred on 07/26/96 when the issue closed higher by 14 percent.  The largest following correction occurred on 09/24/98 when the issue closed lower by -13 percent.

Based on daily NVDA closing prices from 02/04/99 to 02/12/18 the issue rose more than four percent 512 times.  The issue continued to rally on the following day 257 times.  The largest following rally occurred on 03/13/00 when the issue closed higher by 26 percent.  The largest following correction occurred on 07/31/02 when the issue closed lower by -32 percent.

Based on daily QCOM closing prices from 12/24/91 to 02/27/18 the issue rose more than four percent 534 times.  The issue continued to rally on the following day 244 times.  The largest following rally occurred on 04/21/99 when the issue closed higher by 39 percent.  The largest following correction occurred on 01/26/00 when the issue closed lower by -16 percent.

Friday, March 9, 2018

Market Outlook 2018

My personal outlook for 2018 is a best case of 3450, a worst case of 1800 and a most likely of 2650.  I based this range on SPX pricing from as early as 1950 with the top representing an 8% CAGR and the low representing a 7% CAGR.  Trading within this range only represents normal movement in my view so trading outside of it wouldn't suprise me if some significant market event or discovery were to happen.

Energy

The energy sector remains one of my favorites due to its superior value as compared with the market leading technology sector at the moment.  The thematic collapse of energy due to the discovery of fracking seems off in some way to me.  Cheap fuel is finding its way into many industries and as those industries develop a dependency the price should begin to rise consistently going forward.

Emerging Markets

The emerging markets sector is another one of my favorites for the same reasons as with energy.  So many of these countries are geared towards providing energy and as energy recovers so will these markets.  Since a lot of these economies mismanage their debt there should be a levered effect as they recover due to the repricing of that debt.

Biotech

The biotech sector is clearly suffering as collateral damage from the political wars of 2017.  This political shortsightedness should have no long lasting effects on this industry and I expect a full recovery going forward.  The repricing of biotechnology due to politics is probably the best value gift from 2017.  With the US popluation growing older every day this sector should be one of the most important over the next several years.

Bitcoin

I still haven't been able to figure out bitcoin and I've already watched two documentaries about it!  Clearly having missed the boat on this investment the only question left is what to do going forward.  I think that the next best option to avoid being completely left out is to find a suitable hedge.  The semiconductor industry appears to have increasing sensitivity to developments in the cryptocurrency space and would provide for a great diversified proxy investment.  If ultimately, blockchain or bitcoin fail to live up to the hype the semiconductor industry will certainly live to see another day.  I'd be patient, however, and wait for a deep pullback before putting anything on in this space.

Interest Rates

One of the most interesting phenomenons in 2017 other than bitcoin has been persistently low interest rates.  Growing wealth disparity combined with these low rates confirms that no one is invested in this bull market.  This also explains why terrible news has only has a temporary effect...the supply of buyers are now overwhelming the supply of sellers.  I see limited risk to the downside until we start seeing rates north of 8%.

Monday, February 26, 2018

What happens to stocks after an all time high?

Based on daily ADBE closing prices from 12/05/91 to 02/26/18 the issue made all time highs 275 times.  The issue continued to rally on the following day 130 times.  The largest following rally occurred on 03/24/95 when the issue closed higher by 30 percent.  The largest following correction occurred on 05/02/00 when the issue closed lower by -12 percent.

Based on daily AMZN closing prices from 07/07/97 to 02/22/18 the issue made all time highs 267 times.  The issue continued to rally on the following day 141 times.  The largest following rally occurred on 11/23/98 when the issue closed higher by 21 percent.  The largest following correction occurred on 09/15/97 when the issue closed lower by -16 percent.

Based on daily BA closing prices from 12/23/91 to 02/02/18 the issue made all time highs 267 times.  The issue continued to rally on the following day 133 times.  The largest following rally occurred on 07/26/17 when the issue closed higher by 10 percent.  The largest following correction occurred on 11/22/00 when the issue closed lower by -5 percent.

Based on daily CME closing prices from 12/10/02 to 02/20/18 the issue made all time highs 205 times.  The issue continued to rally on the following day 100 times.  The largest following rally occurred on 06/29/05 when the issue closed higher by 13 percent.  The largest following correction occurred on 11/28/05 when the issue closed lower by -6 percent.

Based on daily NFLX closing prices from 05/28/02 to 01/30/18 the issue made all time highs 241 times.  The issue continued to rally on the following day 108 times.  The largest following rally occurred on 01/23/18 when the issue closed higher by 10 percent.  The largest following correction occurred on 10/22/13 when the issue closed lower by -9 percent.

Monday, November 20, 2017

Which ETFs have risen the most?

Based on daily TECL closing prices from 12/18/08 to 12/15/17 the issue rose by 3241 percent.
Based on daily TQQQ closing prices from 02/12/10 to 12/15/17 the issue rose by 2736 percent.
Based on daily SVXY closing prices from 10/05/11 to 12/15/17 the issue rose by 2241 percent.
Based on daily UPRO closing prices from 06/26/09 to 12/15/17 the issue rose by 1848 percent.
Based on daily UDOW closing prices from 02/12/10 to 12/15/17 the issue rose by 1317 percent.
Based on daily SOXL closing prices from 03/12/10 to 12/15/17 the issue rose by 1287 percent.
Based on daily XIV closing prices from 12/01/10 to 12/15/17 the issue rose by 1232 percent.
Based on daily DRN closing prices from 07/17/09 to 12/15/17 the issue rose by 1191 percent.
Based on daily UMDD closing prices from 02/12/10 to 12/15/17 the issue rose by 1021 percent.
Based on daily SPXL closing prices from 11/06/08 to 12/15/17 the issue rose by 967 percent.
Based on daily RETL closing prices from 07/15/10 to 12/15/17 the issue rose by 940 percent.
Based on daily CURE closing prices from 06/16/11 to 12/15/17 the issue rose by 904 percent.
Based on daily MDY closing prices from 05/15/95 to 12/15/17 the issue rose by 804 percent.
Based on daily MIDU closing prices from 01/09/09 to 12/15/17 the issue rose by 792 percent.
Based on daily QLD closing prices from 06/22/06 to 12/15/17 the issue rose by 732 percent.
Based on daily URTY closing prices from 02/12/10 to 12/15/17 the issue rose by 695 percent.
Based on daily BIB closing prices from 04/09/10 to 12/15/17 the issue rose by 644 percent.
Based on daily SPY closing prices from 02/01/93 to 12/15/17 the issue rose by 506 percent.
Based on daily TNA closing prices from 11/06/08 to 12/15/17 the issue rose by 457 percent.
Based on daily ROM closing prices from 02/02/07 to 12/15/17 the issue rose by 409 percent.
Based on daily RXL closing prices from 02/05/07 to 12/15/17 the issue rose by 403 percent.
Based on daily IJR closing prices from 05/30/00 to 12/15/17 the issue rose by 374 percent.
Based on daily EEM closing prices from 04/14/03 to 12/15/17 the issue rose by 314 percent.
Based on daily DDM closing prices from 06/22/06 to 12/15/17 the issue rose by 307 percent.

Read More: Defending Leverage

Sunday, November 12, 2017

What happens a year after an IPO?

Both SNAP and APRN have lost more than 50% since their IPOs earlier this year...find out what happened to some of these other market veterans their first year out of the gate.

Based on daily GOOGL closing prices from 08/20/04 to 08/19/05 the issue returned 176 percent.

Based on daily TSLA closing prices from 06/30/10 to 06/29/11 the issue returned 10 percent.
Based on daily AMZN closing prices from 05/16/97 to 05/18/98 the issue returned 273 percent.
Based on daily FB closing prices from 05/21/12 to 05/23/13 the issue returned -31 percent.
Based on daily BABA closing prices from 09/22/14 to 09/22/15 the issue returned -33 percent.
Based on daily EBAY closing prices from 09/25/98 to 09/24/99 the issue rose 863 percent.
Based on daily FCX closing prices from 07/11/95 to 07/08/96 the issue rose 29 percent.
Based on daily GILD closing prices from 01/23/92 to 01/20/93 the issue rose -12 percent.
Based on daily GS closing prices from 05/05/99 to 05/02/00 the issue rose 33 percent.
Based on daily MA closing prices from 05/26/06 to 05/29/07 the issue rose 211 percent.
Based on daily MDLZ closing prices from 06/14/01 to 06/19/02 the issue rose 37 percent.
Based on daily MET closing prices from 04/06/00 to 04/05/01 the issue rose 95 percent.
Based on daily MS closing prices from 02/24/93 to 02/18/94 the issue rose 12 percent.
Based on daily NWSA closing prices from 06/20/13 to 06/19/14 the issue rose 8 percent.
Based on daily PM closing prices from 03/18/08 to 03/17/09 the issue rose -23 percent.
Based on daily QCOM closing prices from 12/16/91 to 12/11/92 the issue rose 39 percent.
Based on daily SBUX closing prices from 06/29/92 to 06/25/93 the issue rose 123 percent.
Based on daily SPG closing prices from 12/16/93 to 12/14/94 the issue rose 7 percent.
Based on daily TWX closing prices from 03/20/92 to 03/18/93 the issue rose 93 percent.
Based on daily UPS closing prices from 11/11/99 to 11/08/00 the issue rose -13 percent.
Based on daily V closing prices from 03/20/08 to 03/19/09 the issue rose -10 percent.

Friday, November 3, 2017

Which stocks have risen the most?

Based on daily AMZN closing prices from 05/16/97 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 56364 percent.
Based on daily TWX closing prices from 03/20/92 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 39780 percent.
Based on daily SBUX closing prices from 06/29/92 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 16389 percent.
Based on daily NFLX closing prices from 05/24/02 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 16371 percent.
Based on daily ORCL closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 14160 percent.
Based on daily NVDA closing prices from 01/25/99 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 11685 percent.
Based on daily GILD closing prices from 01/23/92 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 11095 percent.
Based on daily UNH closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 11067 percent.
Based on daily QCOM closing prices from 12/16/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 11065 percent.
Based on daily CSCO closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 9446 percent.
Based on daily AAPL closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 9189 percent.
Based on daily LOW closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 8926 percent.
Based on daily TXN closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 5549 percent.
Based on daily EBAY closing prices from 09/25/98 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 4600 percent.
Based on daily MSFT closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 3899 percent.
Based on daily INTC closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 3431 percent.
Based on daily GD closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 3249 percent.
Based on daily MA closing prices from 05/26/06 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 3124 percent.
Based on daily NKE closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 2853 percent.
Based on daily FDX closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 2418 percent.
Based on daily CAT closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 2413 percent.
Based on daily HD closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 2296 percent.
Based on daily AMGN closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 2222 percent.
Based on daily UTX closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 1983 percent.
Based on daily GOOGL closing prices from 08/20/04 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 1967 percent.
Based on daily CMCSA closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 1923 percent.
Based on daily USB closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 1895 percent.
Based on daily MCD closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 1884 percent.
Based on daily AXP closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 1623 percent.
Based on daily COF closing prices from 11/17/94 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 1618 percent.
Based on daily MDT closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 1517 percent.
Based on daily UNP closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 1403 percent.
Based on daily WFC closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 1403 percent.
Based on daily HON closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 1386 percent.
Based on daily JPM closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 1299 percent.
Based on daily BK closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 1213 percent.
Based on daily CL closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 1213 percent.
Based on daily TGT closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 1107 percent.
Based on daily LMT closing prices from 03/17/95 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 1098 percent.
Based on daily TSLA closing prices from 06/30/10 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 1087 percent.
Based on daily BA closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 1067 percent.
Based on daily MO closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 1044 percent.
Based on daily JNJ closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 1035 percent.
Based on daily DIS closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 1006 percent.
Based on daily MON closing prices from 10/19/00 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 990 percent.
Based on daily MMM closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 965 percent.
Based on daily HPQ closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 895 percent.
Based on daily ACN closing prices from 07/20/01 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 857 percent.
Based on daily COST closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 842 percent.
Based on daily PG closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 750 percent.
Based on daily ABT closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 729 percent.
Based on daily APC closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 688 percent.
Based on daily V closing prices from 03/20/08 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 663 percent.
Based on daily MS closing prices from 02/24/93 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 647 percent.
Based on daily OXY closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 639 percent.
Based on daily SPG closing prices from 12/16/93 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 633 percent.
Based on daily DVN closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 631 percent.
Based on daily WMT closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 623 percent.
Based on daily PEP closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 620 percent.
Based on daily NOV closing prices from 10/30/96 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 611 percent.
Based on daily BAX closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 594 percent.
Based on daily NSC closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 586 percent.
Based on daily CVX closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 583 percent.
Based on daily ALL closing prices from 06/04/93 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 572 percent.
Based on daily CVS closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 561 percent.
Based on daily IBM closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 561 percent.
Based on daily PFE closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 529 percent.
Based on daily APA closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 503 percent.
Based on daily COP closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 494 percent.
Based on daily HAL closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 476 percent.
Based on daily XOM closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 460 percent.
Based on daily SO closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 445 percent.
Based on daily EMR closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 441 percent.
Based on daily KO closing prices from 12/03/91 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 413 percent.
Based on daily FB closing prices from 05/21/12 to 11/03/17 the issue rose by 390 percent.

Read More: Which stocks have risen the most...

Read More: Which ETFs have risen the most...